El Niño’s Fury: A Rare Trio of Pacific Hurricanes and a Warming Planet

Three hurricanes are churning through the Pacific Ocean in a rare display of nature’s power, a phenomenon scientists link directly to a historically strong El Niño and the warming seas that fuel these storms. Tropical Storm Marie strengthened into a hurricane late yesterday off the coast of Baja, California, joining Hurricanes Karina and Lowell, both Category 4, as they march westward across the vast ocean.

“Three hurricanes are definitely rare to see,” said Julia Cole, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan. “El Niño warming sets the stage for these storms, which are fuelled in large part by warm waters. When the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, we see an increase in strong storms.”

What is El Niño and why does it fuel hurricanes?

El Niño is the warming phase of a natural cycle in the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), arriving every two to seven years. It begins when east-to-west trade winds ease, allowing warm water that normally piles up in the western Pacific to slide back east and rise to the surface. When those warmer-than-average surface temperatures persist for months, they generate more storms and clouds over the region, triggering ripple effects across the entire global atmosphere: hotter and drier conditions in some places, cooler and wetter in others.

Warm waters provide the fuel for storms, and El Niño’s effect on the atmosphere leaves little vertical wind shear over the Pacific, creating ideal conditions for hurricanes to intensify. This year’s El Niño has a 69% chance of becoming the strongest on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and is already unleashing extreme weather across the globe even though it is not expected to peak until October-December.

What is happening with the three hurricanes right now?

Hurricane Lowell was about 710 kilometres (440 miles) south of Hilo, Hawaii, and “is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days” as it moves west, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC warned that “swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days,” adding that its long-range track and intensity forecasts were “more uncertain than usual.”

Hawaii is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Lala, which brushed past the southern part of the Big Island last month, bringing destructive winds and severe flash floods. Karina weakened slightly as it moved northwest but is likely to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days, the NHC said late yesterday. Marie, trailing to the east, was 603 kilometres (375 miles) southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California, and expected to strengthen through tomorrow.

How does climate change amplify El Niño’s impacts?

“The climate system has significantly warmed over the last 20 years or so,” said Benjamin Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. The sea surface temperature anomaly, how much warmer the ocean is compared to average, is already near record high, Professor Kirtman added. “There’s no other way to put it, it is juicy out there right now.”

Climate change increases El Niño’s impacts. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so El Niño-linked rains can turn more extreme. It also dries out soils, deepening drought where El Niño brings drought. A similar trend took place in 2015, another intense El Niño year, when Hurricane Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena and Tropical Depression 14E crossed the Pacific at once.

What are the global consequences of this El Niño?

Peru, the world’s largest catcher of anchovy, is facing a devastating blow from warming seas that have gutted production, according to industry officials. In Sudan, El Niño is blamed for delaying crucial rains that have led water levels in the Nile to drop precipitously. These are just two examples of how this natural cycle, intensified by human-caused climate change, is reshaping weather patterns and livelihoods across the planet.

As we watch these three hurricanes spin across the Pacific, the message from science is clear: the ocean is warming, the atmosphere is changing, and we must act collectively to address the root causes of climate change while preparing for the storms that lie ahead.

FAQ: Understanding El Niño and hurricanes

Why are three hurricanes at once so rare?

Three simultaneous hurricanes in the Pacific is highly unusual because it requires exceptionally warm waters and favourable atmospheric conditions across a vast area, which typically only occur during a strong El Niño event. Climate scientist Julia Cole noted that such a sight is “definitely rare to see.”

How long will this El Niño last?

This year’s El Niño is not expected to peak until October-December, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It has a 69% chance of becoming the strongest on record, meaning its effects could persist well into next year.

Is climate change making hurricanes worse?

Yes. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so El Niño-linked rains can turn more extreme, and warmer ocean waters provide more fuel for storms to intensify. Climate change amplifies El Niño’s impacts, deepening droughts where they occur and making wet regions wetter.